So You're Out of the 2024 Leagues Cup (Part One)
So You're Out of the 2024 Leagues Cup (Part One)
Three MLS teams suddenly have a few weeks off. How should they feel?
I think it’s safe to say that there is no competition more universally beloved and respected in American Soccer than the Leagues Cup.
I kid, I kid. I have too much respect for the Campeones Cup, the MLS is Back Tournament, and the Orlando City Invitational to speak so brazenly. Regardless of the outside noise, I’ve enjoyed the second iteration of the full-scale Leagues Cup to this point. As abnormal (globally-speaking) as I recognize the mid-season pause to be, I find its effects equally fascinating. I like getting the final eight-match sprint once the tournament’s over, I like that we see high-ceiling/low-floor teams already out of the Shield race getting another chance at a trophy, and I think it’s good for all of the MLS teams to get competitive matches against Liga MX teams.
It also gives us a chance to really dig into the pyrrhic quality of an early Leagues Cup exit. I did one of these last year, and I’m doing it again now, first with the MLS teams that were eliminated before the third round of group stage matches:
Chicago Fire (West 4, 0 Points, -3 GD)
The Chicago Fire had a rough go of it in this competition. The prior sentence can apply to every competition involving the Chicago Fire since about 2012 (with the 2017 regular season definitely excepted and that run in the mid-2010s when they made the Open Cup semifinals in five of six years maybe excepted). Is it coincidental that the Fire’s run of bad form started immediately after the NBC Primetime Drama that shares their name began in October 2012? Yes, almost certainly.
Both Fire losses in the 2024 Leagues Cup looked similar: Georgios Koutsias scored an early goal assisted by Brian Gutierrez to take a one-nil lead, which the Fire then squandered over the latter two-thirds of the match via poor set-piece defending and bad giveaways. The first of these happened on the road against a Kansas City team slightly lower than them in the MLS standings and the second of these happened at home (but not at home, given that it was in their old new stadium in Bridgeport rather than their new old stadium off of the lakefront) against a Toluca team that has started unbeaten if unspectacular in the Apertura to this point.
It is hard to draw any conclusion about the Chicago Fire other than “That Gutierrez kid is good,” and this tournament reflected that. It speaks to the malaise that has defined the Chicago Fire over the last decade that nobody’s too shocked by this failure. Also evident of this malaise is how eager I am to finish this paragraph and get to what will be the final paragraph in this section on the Fire, thus allowing me to stop thinking about the Fire, which I will do now.
The Fire now have three weeks to get themselves prepared for a nine-match sprint during which they can make something (relatively-speaking) significant happen: If we look at the Eastern Conference Standings at this moment, we see that Chicago, despite sitting in 14th place in the conference, is only three points beneath the playoff cut-line. In fact, only seven points currently separate 8th-place Toronto from 15th-place New England. Somebody has to occupy those eighth and ninth-place spots, no matter how much people complain about how many teams make the playoffs. Chicago, despite another bad season, can very easily qualify for postseason soccer for the first time since 2017, and they have three weeks off to get prepared for doing so. Georg Heitz has three weeks to either sell Shaqiri or convince him to care, Frank Klopas has three weeks to practice celebratory pelvic thrusts, and the team in general has three weeks to figure out how to turn what will be a Soldier Field torn up by Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears into a competitive advantage.
Diagnosis: Not that disappointed, not that surprised. Your goal now is to shoot for ninth.
New York Red Bulls (East 6, 2 points, 2 shootout losses, 0 GD)
I figured that The Red Bull might be a sleeper candidate to make a deep run in this tournament (Of course, I didn’t write this thought down anywhere, so you’ll have to take my word for it) because of their defensive prowess and their prolific drawing form to this point in the year. They’re tied with Miami and Columbus for the fewest losses of anyone in MLS, sit right in the middle of the pack with Seattle, Houston, and Charlotte on wins, and stand tied at the top with St. Louis for draws. The Red Bull has been quite good at not losing matches in 2024. They continued to avoid losing matches in the Leagues Cup group stages, but couldn’t convert the penalties they needed to hold on in the tournament and thus are out of the tournament.
This will sting a bit because losing like this reflects the clutch scoring woes that keep biting them during the playoffs. In 2023, they lose 1-1 on penalties to Cincinnati; in 2022, they lose 2-1 to Cincinnati; in 2021, they lose 1-0 deep in stoppage time to Philadelphia. Outside of the wild card round and the Leagues Cup round of 32 last year, they struggle to pick up more than one goal in high-stakes matches.
I will choose to see this as somewhat aberrational. The expected goal-total of their match against Pachuca (RBNY had 2.3 xG to Pachuca’s 0.6) reflects this and the fact that they’ve already surpassed their 2023 goal-scoring total in MLS with nine matches left does as well. They’re still a challenger for a top-two seed in the East (it’s hard to see they nor anyone else catching Miami for the top spot in the East at this point) and could make a deep playoff run if the breaks go their way, but I can’t shake the sense that this was their best remaining chance for a trophy in 2024. It’s hard to see them among the field of the most obvious Cup competitors, and it’s hard to see them in the second tier of obvious cup competitors either. 1
Diagnosis: Ominous but Not All That Bad
FC Dallas (West 3, 0 points, -3 GD, lost to both St. Louis and Juarez):
Seattle and Atlanta last year showed that it is not necessarily the worst thing to crash out of the Leagues Cup. I am not recommending that anybody explicitly or intentionally throw the group stage of the Leagues Cup, but getting a few weeks off in preparation for the remainder of the MLS Season can actually help a middling team to get right.
Seattle was stuck in purgatory with injuries and malaise for much of 2023, got zero points in the Leagues Cup, then finished with a run of four wins, five draws, and only one loss in their final ten matches afterwards to place second in the Western Conference.
Atlanta was defensively miserable for much of 2023, gave up five goals over their two Leagues Cup matches, and finished last in their group. After the Leagues Cup, they added Tristan Muyumba and Saba Lobzhanidze to bolster their midfield, switched to a more defensively-stout formation, and finished with four wins and four draws in their last ten matches.
In a sense similar to Chicago, 2024 has been a stormy season for FC Dallas which nonetheless still holds a glimmer of hope for salvation. I think Dallas’ outlook is somewhat better-founded than Chicago’s, given how good they’ve looked at points since the departure of Nico Estevez and installation of Peter Luccin in early June. They’ve taken good wins over Portland and Austin, shut out that dynamic LA Galaxy attack, they’re seeing production out of Petar Musa, they’re seeing more consistency from the breakout players who stabilized the team in 2023, and it’s looking like both Alan Velasco and Jesus Ferreira will be back from injury for the last stretch of the season. They’re only three points beneath the ninth-place cut-line, and though they don’t have an easy schedule down the stretch (that five of their last nine are on the road is problematic, particularly for a team yet to rack up an MLS road win to this point in 2024), a strong finish that sets up a postseason run feels feasible.
They now have a couple of weeks to continue getting healthy in preparation for a postseason run, and they stand to get there with a solidifying defense, a quality goalkeeper, and an attack looking to add two of the most dynamic young playmakers in MLS back in alongside an All-Star striker.
Diagnosis: Rest well, get healthy, be prepared to make good on your potential
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I’ll have to wait until the end of the group stage for the other MLS teams. Montreal, Charlotte, San Jose, and Minnesota, are at the mercy of others to decide their collective fates. Orlando, Atlanta, and Colorado control their own fate against Liga MX teams. We’ll get another round of Houston/RSL to determine their fates on Monday night, and finally, on Tuesday, we’ll see New England take on Nashville in a match best described as “Contractually Obligated”.
Actually, if I had to spell this out as it stands:
Obvious Cup Favorites (a la 2022 LAFC, 2018 Atlanta, 2017 Toronto, 2014 Galaxy): Miami, LAFC, Columbus, LA Galaxy
Feasible But Slightly Outside Immediately Obvious Cup Competitors (a la 2023 Columbus, 2019 Seattle): Real Salt Lake, FC Cincinnati [taking injury misfortune into account]
Unexpected But Imaginable Cup Competitors (a la 2016 Seattle, 2015 Portland): The Red Bull, NYCFC
Genuine Dark Horses (a la 2021 NYCFC, 2020 Columbus): Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Colorado Rapids, Charlotte FC
It Would Be The Equivalent of if 2012 Houston or 2018 Portland had actually won their finals but I can visualize it: Portland Timbers, Minnesota United FC, Philadelphia Union
Elaboration on this point would drift very far out of the realm of the intended exigence of this piece.